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Hoo-hah! MacWorld Predictions

Monday, January 10, 2005

MacWorld is tomorrow in California - bastards. Sunshine and new hardware. So since we’ll not be there it’s time to put my predictions in writing. Some are no brainers, and some wish-fulfillment. But it’s a game, right? So let’s consult the Magic 8-ball:

“Signs point to yes”
- New iPod Flash - unless you’ve been hibernating, this is a fait de complet.  The latest buzz is that it’s a remote-control-type device.

- New QuickTime - the h.264-based video (4 times more efficient than current, if I recall correctly) with AAC Pro (the new audio component to h.264) and support for OGG playback. This will make many a Linux user happy and negate a bit of the iRiver advantage.

- New iTunes - New iPod, new QuickTime…new iTunes. duh.

- Keynote 2 - Long overdue, it has the possibility to be a real PowerPoint killer if Apple can smooth out the rough edges. It needed more transitions and pushes, and the ability to have multiple pushes-per-slide, more clipart and easier bullet-ing. QuickTime export really stands to have great gains on file size.

- Asteroid - Some kind of Firewire DJ control. Kids will like it, I guess. Damn kids - playing music at all hours. And stay off my lawn!


“Reply hazy, try again”
- A Mac Office Suite - Possible, but that would mean either upgrading the AppleWorks codebase, which if I recall wasn’t terribly optimized for OS X to begin with, nor a G5. Building from scratch makes more sense, but we’re also talking about creating a word processor & spreadsheet companions to Keynote, which as I mentioned earlier needed stabilizing itself. Mail competes pretty well with Outlook except for the scheduling component - iCal needs to be integrated better. You also need a competitor for Access, especially since the MS option doesn’t include it and MySQL is built in to OS X. Filemaker makes sense except that they’re doing very well without being bundled but it competes with MySQL. It makes more sense to build a MySQL front-end with the same drag and click ease of Access. Ultimately, I think Keynote 2 will arrive and perhaps a upgraded version of Notepad becomes our new Write application, and when a db and spreadsheet are ready, then the Office app cometh. IMHO, not this show.

- iBook upgrade - yeah, it’s only been a few months since the speed-bump, but Apple really needs to address the coming VRAM issue on the iBook and Tiger. If you say Tiger’s Core Image component requires 64MB VRAM, how long do you continue selling 32MB VRAM hardware? What happens when all these Christmas presents decide that they want to upgrade to Tiger in June, and find that they’re already severely outdated? Sure Core Image scales to older hardware, but seriously - 32MBs? Apple - you really need to address this.


“Outlook not so good”
The Headless Mac - Man, I really doubt the idea of a $500 headless iMac. Unless they’re dropping the eMac from the consumer market, I can’t imagine most non-Apple users heading for it.

So what is the mystery box…?


“Signs point to yes”
iHome - Apple’s PVC and answer to the iPod video issue. Another salvo in the consumer hardware market, I think the iHome will be the Mac Tivo - with the added ability of allowing iPods to shuttle video from project to presentation just by plugging in. iTunes music and iMovie, iDVD projects, the iPod carries it to an iHome which displays it, as well as doing the video recording/scheduling PVRs are known for. I would be surprised if it had a DVD player, but it could happen. I do expect it to be able to link with an Airport Extreme, so you can place your video where you want without having to keep it near the stereo or running wires across the room. Consider also the space-saving quality of h.264 in the new QuickTime. And if the rumor of Apple speakers are true, and they’re wireless speakers, then you begin to see how this can really change the marketplace.

What may separate it from the pack will be price - I think Apple’s on the edge of playing the value game. If iHome comes in under $500, it’ll completely own the market. Even if you have to spend another $200 or so for wireless speakers and an Airport Express, it would still be an amazing value and destroy the competition on price.


“Ask again later…”
Apple chose not to webcast it live (another pointer for me to a QuickTime upgrade) so by tomorrow midnight (Amsterdam-time) we’ll probably know all.

What do you predict?

Posted by Admin on 01/10 at 01:15 AM
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